Investir no Brasil em 2019 ainda é um risco?
A situação econômica no Brasil ainda deixa uma grande incógnita sobre o que podemos fazer. Ainda não sabemos ao certo quando poderemos fazer investimentos, por exemplo, já que é um procedimento que facilmente pode se tornar de alto risco.
Veja também: Cinco profissões que podem desaparecer até 2030
E tratando-se de Brasil, os riscos de investimentos em negócios permanecem altos – é o que aponta o relatório trimestral Country Risk Report (Relatório Risco País), produzido pela Euler Hermes, líder mundial em seguro de crédito e especialista em seguro garantia.
O crescimento de apenas 1,1% do PIB nacional em 2018, fruto da instabilidade financeira e da greve dos caminhoneiros, trouxe consequências às atividades econômicas e, principalmente, à confiança do investidor estrangeiro.
O país foi descrito pelo estudo como “sensível” no que diz respeito ao risco de pagamento – a segunda avaliação mais baixa em uma escala de quatro. “O crescimento de 2018 não é ruim se compararmos à retração apresentada em 2015 e 2016, mas ainda está longe dos resultados pré-crise, de 2013 e 2014”, explica Felipe Tanus, Diretor de Riscos da Euler Hermes Brasil.
Enquanto 2018 mostrou um crescimento na taxa de consumo (1,9% após 1,3% do ano anterior) e na recuperação dos investimentos (4,1% após 2,6% do ano anterior), as perspectivas para 2019 permanecem instáveis dado que a taxa de desemprego está na casa dos 12%. Os empreendimentos no país seguem em recuperação com o retorno da confiança dos investidores apoiada pelas promessas de privatizações e de uma política monetária confortável. “Observamos um crescimento em torno de 1,3% para 2019 e 2,0% para 2020, taxas muito inferiores à média dos anos 2000 de + 3,5%”, completa Tanus.
No entanto, o cenário da economia brasileira de 2019 se materializa a partir dos resultados observados no primeiro semestre. Além da já citada taxa de desemprego, as vendas no varejo permanecem estagnadas desde fevereiro e a confiança da população caiu para os níveis de eleição pré-Bolsonaro, à medida que seus índices de aprovação também caem. Já na indústria, a produção apresentou contração pelo sexto mês consecutivo, o que enfraquece a confiança do empresariado.
A confusão política, com denúncias de corrupção no atual Governo e desentendimentos com o presidente da Câmara (e, mais recentemente, com o presidente francês Emmanuel Macron), e as primeiras dificuldades no processo legislativo de reforma da previdência também fizeram com que o Real seguisse uma tendência de depreciação desde o final de janeiro. “Como resultado, prevemos uma recuperação lenta, de 1,3 % de crescimento do PIB este ano, e dolorosas e prolongadas negociações previdenciárias, que podem elevar os custos dos empréstimos novamente”, finaliza o diretor.
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