O novo cenário político em tempos de pandemia
A crise da Covid-19 redefiniu os termos e as peças do jogo político no Brasil. Durante o ano passado, o confronto era entre o poder executivo e a liderança do Congresso Nacional, normalmente em função das pautas de segurança pública e das questões morais da agenda de Bolsonaro. Em fevereiro deste ano, o conflito progrediu para as atribuições orçamentárias do Congresso, situação na qual a Câmara ameaçou ampliar o seu poder sobre os gastos da União e retirar discricionariedade do Executivo. Essa disputa culminou nos atos em favor do presidente, em 15 de março. Em meio às pressões por isolamento social, esse ato não aparece sem custos, pois afasta o presidente da parte da população inclinada a seguir as recomendações médicas.
A partir da segunda quinzena de março, as medidas tomadas pelos governos estaduais para restringir a circulação abriram nova frente de batalha. Daí em diante, a disjuntiva saúde pública versus economia tem pautado as relações entre o Congresso e o Presidente. Do lado do Congresso se perfilaram os governadores e os profissionais da saúde. Ao passo que Bolsonaro conta com apoio mais aguerrido de seus apoiadores — que agora retornaram à guerra digital e às manifestações nas ruas —, somados com os comerciantes, eles próprios inflados pela narrativa presidencial.
O choque com os governadores não é um fato pequeno. Desde a redemocratização, os governos estaduais perderam importância na política nacional e tinham dificuldades de contar com apoio popular local em função das dificuldades impostas pelas leis de austeridade fiscal. Agora, diante da importância da coordenação das políticas de saúde estaduais e do afrouxamento das regras orçamentárias aprovadas pela Câmara, ganham mais espaço para protagonizar a superação da crise do novo coronavírus.
Em abril, o conflito com os governadores e o Congresso se expandiu para o interior do Poder Executivo federal. O ministro da saúde, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, após oscilar entre as medidas mais rígidas de isolamento e o afrouxamento proposto pelo seu chefe, finalmente se alinhou ao discurso dos governadores e das autoridades sanitárias. A popularidade de Mandetta e o desafio às determinações de Bolsonaro (orquestrado pelos governadores) levaram à sua demissão, destacando mais um desafeto de Bolsonaro com elevada aprovação popular.
Não bastasse tudo isso, o último milagre da multiplicação de inimigos se deu em um gabinete longínquo das crises recentes. Bolsonaro quis trocar o cargo de diretor da Política Federal e viu Sérgio Moro — o seu ministro mais popular — se demitir, não sem antes dar uma entrevista estarrecedora sobre as pretensões do presidente sobre a direção da instituição. Diante da decisão inusitada de prosseguir com uma troca desgastante a essa altura, as especulações de que Bolsonaro prepara a sua blindagem para o impeachment começaram a crescer. A insistência na substituição na PF em plena crise da pandemia e crise de governo só faz sentido como uma estratégia defensiva, seja para monitorar investigações, seja para agradar setores do Congresso recém-chegados à marquise do Planalto. A seu favor, resta o apoio popular, estimado em um terço da população.
O paradoxo da atual situação é que o presidente não contava com uma pandemia quando resolveu governar de modo minoritário, sem apoio dos partidos no Congresso. À medida que essa conjuntura acelerou o seu isolamento político, é também o tempo da pandemia que ditará o ritmo da agenda política, deixando o impeachment em modo de espera. A sorte de Bolsonaro depende de como usará esse tempo.
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